Methods and apparatus to estimate population reach from different marginal rating unions

ABSTRACT

Example methods, apparatus, systems, and articles of manufacture are disclosed to estimate population reach for different unions based on marginal ratings. An example apparatus includes a reach determiner to determine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals; a pseudo universe determiner to determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals; determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience; and iteratively update the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an error; and a consistency checker to adjust the population reach estimate, the reach determiner to output the population reach estimate of the union.

RELATED APPLICATION

This patent arises from a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser.No. 15/445,530 (now U.S. Patent No. ______), which was filed on Feb. 28,2017. U.S. patent application Ser. No. 15/445,530 is hereby incorporatedherein by reference in its entirety. Priority to U.S. patent applicationSer. No. 15/445,530 is hereby claimed.

FIELD OF THE DISCLOSURE

This disclosure relates generally to media audience measurement, and,more particularly, to methods and apparatus to estimate population reachfrom different marginal rating unions.

BACKGROUND

Determining a size and demographics of an audience of a mediapresentation helps media providers and distributors schedule programmingand determine a price for advertising presented during the programming.In addition, accurate estimates of audience demographics enableadvertisers to target advertisements to certain types and sizes ofaudiences. To collect these demographics, an audience measurement entityenlists a group of media consumers (often called panelists) to cooperatein an audience measurement study (often called a panel) for a predefinedlength of time. In some examples, the audience measurement entityobtains (e.g., directly, or indirectly from a media service provider)return path data from media presentation devices (e.g., set-top boxes)that identifies tuning data from the media presentation device. In suchexamples, because the return path data may not be associated with aknown panelist, the audience measurement entity models and/or assignsviewers to represent the return path data. Additionally, the mediaconsumption habits and demographic data associated with the enlistedmedia consumers are collected and used to statistically determine thesize and demographics of the entire audience of the media presentation.In some examples, this collected data (e.g., data collected viameasurement devices) may be supplemented with survey information, forexample, recorded manually by the presentation audience members.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an example environment in which return pathdata and meter data are collected from media presentation locations andare analyzed by an example audience measurement entity to estimate mediareach for a population for different unions of audience marginal ratingsdata.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram of an example implementation of an exampleunion population reach determiner included in the example environment ofFIG. 1.

FIGS. 3-5 are flowcharts illustrating example machine readableinstructions that may be executed to implement the example unionpopulation reach determiner of FIGS. 1 and/or 2.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of an example processing system structured toexecute the example machine readable instructions of FIGS. 3, 4, and/or5 to implement the example union population reach determiner of FIGS. 1and/or 2.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Audience measurement entities seek to understand the composition andsize of audiences of media, such as television programming. Suchinformation allows audience measurement entity researchers to, forexample, report advertising delivery and/or targeting statistics toadvertisers that target their media (e.g., advertisements) to particularaudiences. Additionally, such information helps to establish advertisingprices commensurate with audience exposure and demographic makeup(referred to herein collectively as “audience configuration”). One wayto gather media presentation information is to gather the mediapresentation information from media output devices (e.g., gatheringtelevision presentation data from a set-top box (STB) connected to atelevision). As used herein, media presentation includes media output bya media device regardless of whether or not an audience member ispresent (e.g., media output by a media output device at which noaudience is present, media exposure to an audience member(s), etc.).

A media presentation device (e.g., STB) provided by a service provider(e.g., a cable television service provider, a satellite televisionservice provider, an over the top service provider, a music serviceprovider, a movie service provider, a streaming media provider, etc.) orpurchased by a consumer may contain processing capabilities to monitor,store, and transmit tuning data (e.g., which television channels aretuned by the media presentation device at a particular time) back to theservice provider, which can then aggregate and provide such return pathdata to an audience measurement entity (e.g., The Nielsen Company (US),LLC.) to analyze media presentation activity. Data transmitted from amedia presentation device back to the service provider is referred toherein as return path data. Return path data includes tuning data.Tuning data is based on data received from the media presentation devicewhile the media presentation device is on (e.g., powered on, switchedon, and/or tuned to a media channel, streaming, etc.). Although returnpath data includes tuning data, return path data may not include datarelated to the user viewing the media corresponding to the mediapresentation device. Accordingly, return path data may not be able to beassociated with specific viewers, demographics, locations, etc.

To determine aspects of media presentation data (e.g., which householdmember is currently consuming a particular media and the demographics ofthat household member), market researchers may perform audiencemeasurement by enlisting a subset of the media consumers as panelists.Panelists or monitored panelists are audience members (e.g., householdmembers, users, panelists, etc.) enlisted to be monitored, who divulgeand/or otherwise share their media activity and/or demographic data tofacilitate a market research study. An audience measurement entitytypically monitors media presentation activity (e.g., viewing,listening, etc.) of the monitored panelists via audience measurementsystem(s), such as a metering device(s) and/or a local people meter(LPM). Audience measurement typically includes determining the identityof the media being presented on a media output device (e.g., atelevision, a radio, a computer, etc.), determining data related to themedia (e.g., presentation duration data, timestamps, channel data,etc.), determining demographic information of an audience, and/ordetermining which members of a household are associated with (e.g., havebeen exposed to) a media presentation. For example, an LPM incommunication with an audience measurement entity communicates audiencemeasurement (e.g., metering) data to the audience measurement entity. Asused herein, the phrase “in communication,” including variances thereof,encompasses direct communication and/or indirect communication throughone or more intermediary components and does not require direct physical(e.g., wired) communication and/or constant communication, but ratheradditionally includes selective communication at periodic or aperiodicintervals, as well as one-time events.

In some examples, metering data (e.g., including media presentationdata) collected by an LPM or other meter is stored in a memory andtransmitted via a network, such as the Internet, to a datastore managedby the audience measurement entity. Typically, such metering data iscombined with additional metering data collected from a group of LPMsmonitoring a group of panelist households. The metering data mayinclude, but are not limited to, a number of minutes a household mediapresentation device was tuned to a particular channel, a number ofminutes a household media presentation device was used (e.g., consumed)by a household panelist member and/or a visitor (e.g., a presentationsession), demographics of the audience (which may be statisticallyprojected based on the panelist data), information indicative of whenthe media presentation device is on or off, and/or informationindicative of interactions with the media presentation device (e.g.,channel changes, station changes, volume changes, etc.), etc. As usedherein, a channel may be a tuned frequency, selected stream, an addressfor media (e.g., a network address), and/or any other identifier for asource and/or carrier of media.

In some examples, the audience measurement entity processes thecollected and/or aggregated metering data for markets where a panel ismaintained and obtains (e.g., from one or more service provider) returnpath data for markets where a panel is not maintained to generate a seedpanel. A seed panel is a synthetic panel including monitored panelistsand non-panelist selected to correspond to return path data homes (e.g.,in-market return path data) and regional panel homes (e.g., over the aironly panelists) and used as the basis for generation of syntheticrespondent level data (e.g., representative of a group synthetic/virtualpanelists) based on a similarity to the segment of the market that isnot covered by return path data. These monitored panelists are selectedfrom a panel (e.g., a national panel of metered users) based on aregional proximity to a designated market area, a similarity betweendemographics of the monitored panelists and demographics of the returnpath data audience location, household media characteristics (e.g., howthe households receive television signals (cable, satellite,over-the-air radio, etc.)), a similarity between media consumption ofthe monitored panelists and the return path data audience, etc. As usedherein, a return path data audience is represented by audience (e.g.,viewer or listener) assigned return path data associated with apopulation (e.g., a universe or users) and/or location. As used herein,a seed panelist is a monitored panelist that has been selected to beincluded in a seed panel. As used herein, synthetic respondent leveldata or respondent level data is processed viewing data at the level ofindividual respondents. Synthetic respondent level data may includecomplete synthesized time records (e.g., at the quarter hour level, hourlevel, etc.) across each broadcasting day of all viewing session byindividual family member and guest on individual metered media outputdevices in a home, and include the demographic data. As used here, adesignated market area is a geographical area that defines a mediamarket where synthetic respondent level data is produced.

In some examples, the audience measurement entity adjusts the seed panelto satisfy target ratings and/or target reach. As used herein, a ratingis an average percentage of a population exposed to media across a settime interval. As used herein, reach is a cumulative percentage or totalof a population that has been counted as a viewer of the media at leastonce during a specified time interval (e.g., hourly, daily, weekly,monthly, etc.). Examples disclosed herein adjust the seed panel byadjusting weights of seed panelists corresponding to the target ratingand/or reach until the target rating and/or reach is satisfied. Forexample, if the target rating is 25% of men exposed to a first programduring a first duration of time and 30% of the generated seed panel menwere exposed to the first program during the first duration of time, theaudience measurement entity may adjust the seed panel to reduce thecurrent rating (e.g., 30%) for that demographic, to a rating closer tothe target rating (e.g., 25%). The audience measurement entity may usethe adjusted seed panel to generate media exposure data based onmarginal data (e.g., quarter hours, hours, days, etc.). Such mediaexposure data may include a total number of seed panelists exposed tothe media at the different marginals, a total population of audiencemembers exposed to the media at the marginals, a total number ofdeduplicated seed panelists exposed to the media (e.g., an audiencereach) from all of the different marginal ratings (e.g., probabilities),and a total population size (e.g., universe estimate) of users thatpotentially could be exposed to the media. As used herein, a marginalrating corresponds to a probability that a person in the universe ofpeople was exposed to media for a particular duration of time. As usedherein, a recorded audience refers to monitored panelists exposed tomedia and a population audience represent the total population of people(e.g., monitored panelists and other unmonitored media consumersassociated with return path data) exposed to the media.

Examples disclosed herein receive the marginal media exposure data(e.g., different episodes of a television series, different quarter hourtime slots of a television program, or a radio program, etc.) fordifferent unions of marginal data and/or smaller unions and estimates apopulation reach across all of the different unions. As used herein, aunion can be made up of smaller unions (e.g., a union of smaller unionsof marginals, such as a union of smaller unions of time-periods) and/orindividual marginals (e.g., time-periods, such as quarter hours). Forexample, a first union may include a first quarter hour marginal and asecond subsequent quarter hour marginal, a second union may include athird, fourth, and fifth quarter hour marginal, and a third union mayinclude the first union and the second union. As used herein, childunions or children are the marginal time intervals and/or smaller unionsthat make up a larger union and a parent union or a parent is a largerunion that includes the child union(s) and/or children. Using the aboveexample, the children of the first union include the first quarter hourmarginal and the second quarter hour marginal and the parent of thefirst union is the third union.

Traditional techniques of determining the total population reach for aunion of marginal media ratings data include numerical calculations thatenumerate all combinations in which someone can watch a program based onthe individual marginal media ratings of making up the union. The numberof probabilities to be solved by such traditional techniques is 2^(n)number of probabilities, where n is the number of marginal probabilitiesprovided in the marginal ratings data (e.g., the ratings for thedifferent possible instances of media exposure) of each union. Forexample, if reach is to be calculated across 4 quarter hours (e.g., foran hour-long media exposure), which corresponds to four possiblemarginal ratings, the total number of probabilities to be solved usingsuch a traditional technique is 16 (e.g., 2⁴). If the reach is to becalculated across 96 quarter hours (e.g., a day-long media exposure),the total number of probabilities to be solved using such a traditionaltechnique is 8*10²⁸ (e.g., 2⁹⁶), thereby exceeding the memory limitand/or processing power of any existing computer. Examples disclosedherein alleviate such memory/processing resource problems associatedwith such a traditional technique by calculating the solution using thedisclosed analytical process.

To estimate the total population reach of a union (e.g., populationunion reach), examples disclosed herein determine pseudo universeestimate(s) (e.g., a pseudo universe estimate of the monitored (alsoreferred to as the recorded) audience and a pseudo universe estimate ofthe return path data (also referred to as the population) audience). Apseudo universe corresponds to what the size of the universe ofindividuals capable of being in a given audience would need to be toachieve the ratings and reach values for that audience if the differentmarginal ratings are assumed to be independent, regardless of how muchdependence actually exists. For example, when the universe of a recordedaudience is equal to the pseudo universe value, then the total reach ofthe recorded audience can be calculated from the audience marginalratings assuming they are independent. However, if there is a differencebetween the pseudo universe of the recorded audience and the actualuniverse of the recorded audience, the audience marginal ratings aredependent. Examples disclosed herein (A) access marginal ratings for therecorded audience, marginal ratings for the population audience, reachfor the recorded audience, and total population size (e.g., the actualuniverse estimate) and (B) determine pseudo universe estimates to solvea system of equations resulting in the population audience reach foreach union. The system of equations includes a link tool (e.g., a linkequation) which is based on the pseudo universe estimates to link thedependency of the population audience marginal ratings to dependenciesexhibited by the recorded audience marginal ratings. In this manner,examples disclosed herein determine the population audience reach fromthe marginal ratings for different unions, in a manner that takes intoaccount the dependency among the different marginal ratings.

Examples disclosed herein use the below system of Equations (e.g.,Equations 1-3), to determine the total population reach for a givenunion (j).

$\begin{matrix}{{{1 - \frac{A_{\{ j\}}}{Q_{\{ j\}}^{R}}} = {\prod_{k \in {C{({\{ j\}})}}}( {1 - \frac{A_{\{ k\}}}{Q_{\{ j\}}^{R}}} )}},{{\forall j} = 1},\ldots \mspace{14mu},m} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 1} ) \\{{\frac{Q_{\{ j\}}^{R} - A_{\{ j\}}}{Q_{P{\{ j\}}}^{P} - A_{\{ j\}}} = \frac{Q_{\{ j\}}^{P} - X_{\{ j\}}}{Q_{P{\{ j\}}}^{P} - X_{\{ j\}}}},{{\forall j} = 1},\ldots \mspace{14mu},m} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 2} ) \\{{{1 - \frac{X_{\{ j\}}}{Q_{\{ j\}}^{P}}} = {\prod_{k \in {C{({\{ j\}})}}}( {1 - \frac{X_{\{ k\}}}{Q_{\{ j\}}^{P}}} )}},{{\forall j} = 1},\ldots \mspace{14mu},m} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 3} )\end{matrix}$

In the preceding equations, UE is the actual universe estimate (e.g.,the total population size), A_({j}) is the total recorded audience reachof the jth union, Q^(R) _({j}) is the pseudo universe estimate of therecorded audience at the jth union, m is the number of unions, C_({j})is a child union of the jth union, X_({j}) is the total population unionreach of the jth union, Q^(P) _({j}) is the pseudo universe estimate ofthe population audience for the jth union, and Q^(P) _(P{j}) is thepseudo universe estimate of the population audience for the parent ofthe jth union. If the jth union does not have a parent, the universeestimate is applied as the parent. Additionally, if the jth union doesnot have a parent, the pseudo-universe estimate is either the universeestimate (e.g., for counts) or 1 (100%) (e.g., for proportions).Equation 1 defines the pseudo universe estimates of the recordedaudience and Equation 3 defines the pseudo universe estimates of thepopulation audience. The pseudo universe estimates of the recordedaudience and the population audience of Equations 1 and 3 represent whatthe sizes of the respective recorded and population audiences would needto be for the respective marginal ratings to yield the correspondingreach values if there was independence between the different marginalratings. Equation 2 is the link between the independency assumption andthe actual dependency exhibited by the recorded population.

Examples disclosed herein determine the population union reach for agiven union (e.g., the population union reaches) by determining initialestimates of the population union reaches (X_({j})) and applying theinitial estimates to Equations 1-3 resulting in some error. Examplesdisclosed herein adjust the population union reach estimates until theerror is sufficiently reduced to an acceptable level. Initially,examples disclosed herein determine the initial pseudo universeestimates for the recorded audience for different unions (Q^(R) _({j}))by applying the recorded audience reaches for each margin (A_({j})) toEquation 1. Once the initial pseudo universe estimates for the recordedaudience for each union has been determined, examples disclosed hereindetermine the initial pseudo universe estimate for the populationaudience (Q^(R) _({j})) for each union by applying the population unionreach estimates and the initial pseudo universe estimate for therecorded audience in Equation 2. Once the initial pseudo universeestimates for the population audience is determined, examples disclosedherein apply the determined pseudo universe estimates for the populationaudience and the population union reach estimates to Equation 3 toidentify an error of the population union reach estimates. The errorcorresponds to an amount of deviation between a relationship (e.g.,expression) of the right side of Equation 3 and a relationship of theleft side of Equation 3 (e.g., the difference between the right side andthe left side). For example, if the right side is equal to the left side(e.g., the difference is zero), the error of the correspondingpopulation union reach is zero. When the error is above an errorthreshold, examples disclosed herein adjust the population union reachestimates to reduce the error. Examples disclosed herein continues thisiterative process while adjusting the population union reach, until thepopulation union reach converge to value(s) that satisfy the errorthreshold.

In some examples disclosed herein the population reach estimates arechecked to verify their consistency. A population reach estimate(s) maybe inconsistent when, for example, the reach estimate of the union isless than the reach of any of the children of the union. Additionally, areach estimate may be inconsistent when, for example, the reach estimateof the union is more than the sum of the reaches of the children or theuniverse estimate. Examples disclosed herein adjust population reachestimates to ensure consistency. Using examples disclosed herein, reachacross a nearly infinite number of time-periods for nearly an infinitenumber of unions may be calculated.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an environment in which example return pathdata 100 and example meter data 102 are collected to determine reachbased on marginal ratings data unions. FIG. 1 includes the examplereturn path data 100, the example meter data 102, an example mediaprovider 104, an example media presentation device 106, example mediaoutput devices 108, 110, an example local people meter (LPM) 112, and anexample audience measurement entity (AME) 114. The example audiencemeasurement entity 114 includes an example modeler 116, an examplereturn path data (RPD) audience storage 118, an example panelist datastorage 120, an example seed panel generator 122, an example stationdata storage 124, an example seed panel storage 126, an example seedpanel optimizer 128, and an example union population reach determiner130.

The example media provider 104 of FIG. 1 is a service provider (e.g.,cable media service provider, a radio frequency (RF) media provider, asatellite media service provider, etc.) that presents media to anaudience member via the example media presentation device 106. The mediaprovided by the example media provider 104 is transmitted (e.g., via awired or wireless network connection) to the media presentation device106. The media presentation device 106 is connected, via a wired orwireless connection, to the example media output device 108 to outputthe media to an audience member. The media output device 108 is a devicecapable of outputting the received media. For example, the media outputdevice 108 may be a television, a radio, speakers, a projector, acomputer, a computing device, a tablet, a mobile device, and/or anyother device capable of outputting media.

When the example media presentation device 106 of FIG. 1 is on, themedia presentation device 106 receives media corresponding to a station,program, website, etc,. based on the tuning of the example mediapresentation device 106. For example, the media presentation device 106may be a set-top box. Additionally or alternatively, the example mediapresentation device 106 may be an over the top device, a video gameconsole, a digital video recorder (DVR), a digital versatile disc (DVD)player, a receiver, a router, a server, a computer, a mobile device,and/or any device that receives media from a service provider. In someexamples, the media presentation device 106 may implement a DVR and/orDVD player. In some examples, the example media presentation device 106includes a unique serial number that, when associated with subscriberinformation, allows an audience measurement entity, a marketing entity,and/or any other entity to ascertain specific subscriber behaviorinformation.

By way of example, the example media presentation device 106 may betuned to channel 5. In such an example, the media presentation device106 outputs media (from the example media provider 104 ) correspondingto the tuned channel 5. The media presentation device 106 may gathertuning data corresponding to which channels, stations, websites, etc.,that the example media presentation device 106 was tuned. The examplemedia presentation device 106 generates and transmits the example returnpath data 100 to the example media provider 104. The example return pathdata 100 includes the tuning data and/or data corresponding to theexample media provider 104. Although the illustrated example of FIG. 1includes the example media provider 104 receiving the example returnpath data 100 from one media presentation device (e.g., the examplemedia presentation device 106), at one location, corresponding to onemedia provider (e.g., the example media provider 104), the example mediaprovider 104 may receive return path data 100 from any number or type(s)of media presentation devices, at any number of locations. The mediaprovider 104 transmits the collected return path data 100 to the exampleaudience measurement entity 114. Additionally or alternatively, theaudience measurement entity 114 may be hosted by any other entity or maybe co-hosted by another entity(ies). For example, the example returnpath data 100 may be collected from the example media presentationdevices 106 by a media provider (e.g., a cable television provider, asatellite television provider, etc.) and the example meter data 102 maybe collected from an LPM (e.g., such as the example LPM 112) by theexample audience measurement entity 114 cooperating with the mediaprovider to gain access to the tuning data. The example audiencemeasurement entity 114 includes the example return path data audiencestorage 118 (e.g., a database) and the example panelist data storage 120(e.g., a database).

The example media output device 110 of FIG. 1 is a device capable ofoutputting the received media. For example, the media output device 110may be a television, a radio, speakers, a projector, a computer, acomputing device, a tablet, a mobile device, and/or any other devicecapable of outputting media. In some examples, the media output device110 receives media over-the-air. In this manner, the media output device110 receives media via an antenna and does not correspond to a mediaprovider (e.g., including the example media provider 104 ). In theillustrated example of FIG. 1, the media output device 110 correspondsto one or more monitored panelists. The example LPM 112 monitors thepanelists exposure to media output by the example media output device110. For example, the example LPM 112 is in communication with theexample media output device 110 to collect and/or capture signalsemitted externally by the media output device 110. The LPM 112 may becoupled with the media output device 110 via wired and/or wirelessconnection. The example LPM 112 may be implemented in connection withadditional and/or alternative types of media presentation devices, suchas, for example, a radio, a computer monitor, a video game console,and/or any other device capable to present media to a user. The LPM 112may be a portable people meter, a cell phone, a computing device, asensor, and/or any other device capable of metering (e.g., monitoring)user exposure to media. In some examples, a media presentation locationmay include a group of LPMs 112. In such examples, the group of the LPMs112 may be used to monitor media exposure for multiple users and/ormedia output devices 110. Additionally, the example panelist datastorage 120 receives and stores the example meter data 102 from theexample LPM 112.

In some examples, the example LPM 112 of FIG. 1 includes a set ofbuttons assigned to audience members to determine which of the audiencemembers is watching the example media output device 110. The LPM 112 mayperiodically prompt the audience members via a set of LEDs, a displayscreen, and/or an audible tone, to indicate that the audience member ispresent at a first media presentation location by pressing an assignedbutton. In some examples, to decrease the number of prompts and, thus,the number of intrusions imposed upon the media consumption experienceof the audience members, the LPM 112 prompts only when unidentifiedaudience members are located at the first media presentation locationand/or only after the LPM 112 detects a channel change and/or a changein state of the media output device 110. In other examples, the LPM 112may include at least one sensor (e.g., a camera, 3-dimensional sensor,etc.) and/or be communicatively coupled to at least one sensor thatdetects a presence of the user in a first example media presentationlocation. The example LPM 112 transmits the example meter data 102 to amedia researcher and/or a marketing entity. The example meter data 102includes the media presentation data (e.g., data related to mediapresented while the media output device 110 is on and a user ispresent). The example meter data 102 may further include a householdidentification, a tuner key, a presentation start time, a presentationend time, a channel key, etc.

Although the illustrated example illustrates the example audiencemeasurement entity 114 collecting the example meter data 102 from oneLPM 112 at one location, the example audience measurement entity 114 maycollect meter data from any number or type of meters at any number oflocations.

The example return path data 100 of FIG. 1 from the example mediapresentation device 106 and/or the example meter data 102 from theexample LPM 112 is transmitted to the example audience measuremententity 114 via a network. The network may be implemented using any typeof public or private network, such as, but not limited to, the Internet,a telephone network, a local area network (LAN), a cable network, and/ora wireless network. To enable communication via the network, the examplemedia presentation device 106 includes a communication interface thatenables a connection to an Ethernet, a digital subscriber line (DSL), atelephone line, a coaxial cable, or any wireless connection, etc.

The example modeler 116 of the example AME 114 of FIG. 1 collects theexample return path data 100 corresponding to the example mediapresentation device(s) 106. As described above, the example return pathdata 100 includes tuning data of the example media presentation device106. However, the example return path data 100 may not include specificdata identifying any information relating to the audience of the examplemedia output device 108. The example modeler 116 models such audienceinformation. For example, the modeler 116 may assign and/or modelvirtual users to augment the example return path data 100, therebygenerating audience assigned return path data. The example modeler 116outputs the audience assigned return path data to the example returnpath data audience storage 118.

The example seed panel generator 122 of FIG. 1 gathers (A) the audienceassigned return path data from the example return path data audiencestorage 118, (B) the example meter data 102 from the example panelistdata storage 120, (C) and station data from the example station datastorage 124 to generate a seed panel. As explained above, a seed panelis a panel including synthetic respondent level data from a set ofmonitored panelists corresponding to the LPM(s) 112 based on a returnpath data audience and/or homes. The seed panelists are selected torepresent the return path data audience and/or homes. The example seedpanel generator 122 assigns geography and income data to the personsand/or homes corresponding to the audience assigned return path data andthe meter data 102. The example seed panel generator 122 initiates theseed panel by selecting monitored panelists to be representative of theviewer/geography/income assigned return path data audience. For example,a monitored panelist may be selected based on a similarity between (A)the location of the monitored panelist and the location of a return pathdata audience member, (B) demographics corresponding to the location ofthe return path data audience member and the demographics of themonitored panelist, (C) media viewing characteristics of the return pathdata audience and the monitored panelist, etc. The example station datastorage 124 stores data related to station receivability by county. Theexample seed panel generator 122 uses the station data to calculate thestation receivability for over the air homes. In some examples, the seedpanel generator 122 filters the seed panelists to collect attributes ofinterest at the person level and/or the household level. Attributes ofinterest at the person level may include age, gender, ethnicity,nationality, race, etc., and attributes at the household level mayinclude head of household data, cable data, single set data, ADS data,county data, metro data, income, zip code, number of televisions, payservice data, etc. The example seed panel generator 122 weights the seedpanelists according to the universe estimate(s) of the designated marketarea. The example seed panel generator 122 stores the final seed panelin the example seed panel storage 126. The final seed panel includessynthetic respondent level data associated with the seed panel.

The example seed panel optimizer 128 of FIG. 1 adjusts the seed panelgenerated by the example seed panel generator 122 to satisfy targetratings and/or target household ratings based on constraints. Suchconstraints may include audience constraints, including quarter hourconstraints, daypart constraints, daily constraints, weekly constraints,monthly constraints, etc. Such constraints may also include reachconstraints, including daypart reach constraints, daily reachconstraints, weekly reach constraints, monthly reach constraints, etc.In some examples, the seed panel optimizer 128 applies a discreteoptimization greedy search to adjust the panels to satisfy the targetratings and/or target household ratings based on the constraints. Theexample seed panel optimizer 128 transmits the adjusted seed panel datawith corresponding synthetic level data (e.g., data related to the mediacorresponding to the target rating) to the example union populationreach determiner 130. The corresponding synthetic level data mayinclude, for example, recorded audience marginal ratings of the media,population marginal ratings of the media, total reach of the recordedaudience from marginal ratings, and a universe estimate. In someexamples, parts of the synthetic level data may come from the adjustedseed panel and other parts may come from other data gathering devicesand/or storage.

The example union population reach determiner 130 of FIG. 1 receives therecorded audience marginal ratings for different time-periods (e.g.,quarter hours, half hours, hours, days, etc.) of the media, thepopulation marginal ratings for the different marginals (e.g., timeperiods) of the media, the total reach of the recorded audience from thedifferent marginal ratings, and a total population size (e.g., theuniverse estimate) from one or more device. Additionally, the exampleunion population reach determiner 130 receives union data related tounions of the different marginals. The unions may be generated based onuser and/or manufacturer preferences. For example, the example unionpopulation reach determiner 130 may receive unions representative ofhalf hour, hour, daypart, and/or any combination of time intervalcorresponding to some or all of the quarter hours for a particular day.In some examples, a union may include multiple unions. For example,union ABCD may be a union of union AB and union CD, where union AB is aunion of marginal A and marginal B and union CD is a union of marginal Cand marginal D. Each union may have a corresponding child and parent.Using the above example, the parent of union AB is union ABCD and thechildren of union AB are A and B. Each union corresponds to a unionreach (e.g., a deduplicated number of people exposed to media across allmarginals in the union). The example union population reach determiner130 determines the population union reaches of each union based on therecorded audience ratings for the different marginals, the populationaudience ratings for the different marginals, the recorded reach of thedifferent unions, and the universe estimate. The example unionpopulation reach determiner 130 determines the population union reachesof each union based using Equations 1-3 above, thereby reducing memoryand/or processing resources associated with the traditional numericalcalculation. The example union population reach determiner 130 outputsthe reach output to another device and/or user. The example unionpopulation reach determiner 130 is further described in conjunction withFIG. 2.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram of an example implementation of the exampleunion population reach determiner 130 of FIG. 1 to determine populationreach for given media based on unions of marginal ratings data. Theexample union population reach determiner 130 includes an exampleinterface(s) 200, an example union analyzer 202, an example pseudouniverse determiner 204, an example reach determiner 206, and an exampleconsistency checker 208. Although the example union population reachdeterminer 130 is described in conjunction with data generated by theexample seed panel optimizer 128 of FIG. 1, the example union populationreach determiner 130 may determine reach based on information providedby any device that is capable of inputting audience marginal ratings,population marginal ratings, audience reach from the unions, anduniverse estimates. For example, the example union population reachdeterminer 130 may determine from different programs, stores visits fordifferent stores, website visits, etc.

The example interface(s) 200 of FIG. 2 receives recorded audiencemarginal ratings corresponding to media for two or more marginals (e.g.,quarter hours), population audience marginal ratings corresponding tothe media for the two or more marginals, total recorded audience reachfor the two or more marginal ratings, and a universe estimate of users.As described above, although the illustrated example of FIGS. 1 and 2include the example seed panel optimizer 128 providing such data, thedata may come from any data providing device and/or may correspond toany type of data related to media exposure at different marginals. Insome examples, the example interface(s) 200 may receive unions from theseed panel optimizer 128 and/or another device. A union includes a totalnumber of recorded audience members that have been exposed to the mediaacross the marginals that make up the union (e.g., the recorded unionreach). In the illustrated example, the marginals are broken up intoquarter hours. For example, the recorded and/or population audiencemarginal ratings may correspond to four quarter hour marginals of anhour media program. However, the marginals may be broken up into anyincrements of time. Additionally, the example interface(s) 200 mayoutput an estimated population reach for each union to anotherdevice/system and/or as a report to a user.

The example union analyzer 202 of FIG. 2 analyzes the unions to identifytheir parent and children unions. For example, if the received unionincludes three unions, union A, B, and C, where union A is a union ofmarginals 1 and 2, union B is a union of marginals 3 and 4, and union Cis a union of unions A and B, then the union analyzer 202 determinesthat union A has two children (e.g., marginal 1 and marginal 2) and oneparent (e.g., Union C), union B has two children (e.g., marginal 3 andmarginal 4) and one parent (e.g., Union C), and union C has two children(e.g., union A and union B) and no parent. In such an example, the unionanalyzer 202 may use the universe estimate as the parent of union C.

The example pseudo universe determiner 204 of FIG. 2 determines pseudouniverse estimates for both the recorded and population audiences aspart of a process to determine a respective population reach for eachreceived union. As described above, a pseudo universe estimate is auniverse corresponding to what the size of the universe of individualscapable of being in a given audience would need to be to achieve theratings and reach values for that audience if the different marginalratings are assumed to be independent, regardless of how much dependenceactually exists. The example pseudo universe determiner 204 determinesrecorded pseudo universe estimates and population pseudo universeestimates for each union to calculate the population reaches of therespective unions. As further described below in conjunction with FIG.3, the example pseudo universe determiner 204 determines an initialpseudo universe estimate for the population audience for each unionbased on a recorded union reach estimate. In subsequent iterations, theinitial pseudo universe of the population audience for each union isupdated to adjust the population union reach estimate until thepopulation union reach estimates converge to appropriate estimates(e.g., reach estimates that satisfy an error threshold).

The example reach determiner 206 of FIG. 2 estimates population unionreaches and adjusts the population union reach estimates until thepopulation reach estimates converge to an appropriate group ofestimates. As described above, a population union reach is adeduplicated total audience corresponding to the total populationaudience of media across all analyzed marginals and/or children of aunion. As further described below in conjunction with FIG. 3, theexample reach determiner 206 initializes by selecting (e.g., estimating)a population reach for each union. In some examples, the selectedpopulation reaches are based on an assumption of independency amongrecorded audiences within the union. In subsequent iterations, thepopulation union reaches are updated (e.g., adjusted) until thepopulation reach estimates converge to appropriate estimates (e.g.,within a margin of error).

The example consistency checker 208 of FIG. 2 checks the consistency ofthe population reach estimates of the received unions based on thepopulation reach estimates of parents and children of each receivedunion. A population reach estimate of a union may be inconsistent when,for example, the population reach estimate of the union is less than thepopulation reach of any of the children of the union. Additionally oralternatively, a population reach estimate of a union may beinconsistent when, for example, the population reach estimate of theunion is more than (A) the sum of the reaches of the children or (B) theuniverse estimate. The example consistency checker 208 identifies whenone or more of the population reach estimates is inconsistent and flagsthe population reach estimates for the inconsistent unions. In someexamples, the consistency checker 208 determines how to adjust theinconsistent population reach estimate(s) to assure a consistent result.The example consistency checker 208 is further described below inconjunction with FIGS. 4 and 5.

While an example manner of implementing the example union populationreach determiner 130 of FIG. 1 is illustrated in FIG. 2, one or moreelements, processes and/or devices illustrated in FIG. 2 may becombined, divided, re-arranged, omitted, eliminated and/or implementedin any other way. Further, the example interface 200, the example unionanalyzer 202, the example pseudo universe determiner 204, the examplereach determiner 206, the example consistency checker 208, and/or, moregenerally, the example the example union population reach determiner130, of FIG. 2 may be implemented by hardware, machine readableinstructions, software, firmware and/or any combination of hardware,machine readable instructions, software and/or firmware. Thus, forexample, any of the example interface 200, the example union analyzer202, the example pseudo universe determiner 204, the example reachdeterminer 206, the example consistency checker 208, and/or, moregenerally, the example the example union population reach determiner130, of FIG. 2 could be implemented by one or more analog or digitalcircuit(s), logic circuit(s), programmable processor(s), applicationspecific integrated circuit(s) (ASIC(s)), programmable logic device(s)(PLD(s)) and/or field programmable logic device(s) (FPLD(s)). Whenreading any of the apparatus or system claims of this patent to cover apurely software and/or firmware implementation, at least one of theexample interface 200, the example union analyzer 202, the examplepseudo universe determiner 204, the example reach determiner 206, theexample consistency checker 208, and/or, more generally, the example theexample union population reach determiner 130, of FIG. 2 is/are herebyexpressly defined to include a tangible computer readable storage deviceor storage disk such as a memory, a digital versatile disk (DVD), acompact disk (CD), a Blu-ray disk, etc., storing the software and/orfirmware. Further still, the example union population reach determiner130 of FIG. 2 may include one or more elements, processes and/or devicesin addition to, or instead of, those illustrated in FIG. 2, and/or mayinclude more than one of any or all of the illustrated elements,processes and devices.

Flowcharts representative of example machine readable instructions forimplementing the example union population reach determiner 130 of FIG. 2are shown in FIGS. 3-5. In the examples, the machine readableinstructions comprise a program for execution by a processor such as theprocessor 612 shown in the example processor platform 600 discussedbelow in connection with FIG. 6. The program may be embodied in softwarestored on a tangible computer readable storage medium such as a CD-ROM,a floppy disk, a hard drive, a digital versatile disk (DVD), a Blu-raydisk, or a memory associated with the processor 612, but the entireprogram and/or parts thereof could alternatively be executed by a deviceother than the processor 612 and/or embodied in firmware or dedicatedhardware. Further, although the example program is described withreference to the flowchart illustrated in FIG. 3, many other methods ofimplementing the example union population reach determiner 130 of FIG. 2may alternatively be used. For example, the order of execution of theblocks may be changed, and/or some of the blocks described may bechanged, eliminated, or combined.

As mentioned above, the example processes of FIGS. 3-5 may beimplemented using coded instructions (e.g., computer and/or machinereadable instructions) stored on a tangible computer readable storagemedium such as a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a read-only memory(ROM), a compact disk (CD), a digital versatile disk (DVD), a cache, arandom-access memory (RAM) and/or any other storage device or storagedisk in which information is stored for any period (e.g., for extendedtime periods, permanently, for brief instances, for temporarilybuffering, and/or for caching of the information). As used herein, theterm tangible computer readable storage medium is expressly defined toinclude any type of computer readable storage device and/or storage diskand to exclude propagating signals and to exclude transmission media. Asused herein, “tangible computer readable storage medium” and “tangiblemachine readable storage medium” are used interchangeably. Additionallyor alternatively, the example processes of FIGS. 3-5 may be implementedusing coded instructions (e.g., computer and/or machine readableinstructions) stored on a non-transitory computer and/or machinereadable medium such as a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a read-onlymemory, a compact disk, a digital versatile disk, a cache, arandom-access memory and/or any other storage device or storage disk inwhich information is stored for any period (e.g., for extended timeperiods, permanently, for brief instances, for temporarily buffering,and/or for caching of the information). As used herein, the termnon-transitory computer readable medium is expressly defined to includeany type of computer readable storage device and/or storage disk and toexclude propagating signals and to exclude transmission media. As usedherein, when the phrase “at least” is used as the transition term in apreamble of a claim, it is open-ended in the same manner as the term“comprising” is open ended.

FIG. 3 is an example flowchart 300 representative of example machinereadable instructions that may be executed by the example unionpopulation reach determiner 130 of FIGS. 1 and 2 to generate respectivepopulation reach estimates for various unions. Although the instructionsof FIG. 3 are described in conjunction with a population reachestimation based on received unions of media exposure from the exampleunion population reach determiner 130 of FIGS. 1 and 2, the exampleinstructions may be utilized to determine reach based on any type ofmedia and/or union from any type of population union reach determiner.Although, the example flowchart 300 is described in conjunction with aparticular order of solving Equations 1-3, the instructions may beexecuted to solve equations in any order.

At block 302, the example interface 200 receives recorded audiencemarginal ratings, population audience marginal ratings, total recordedaudience reach for different unions, and a total population size (e.g.,a universe estimate). At block 304, the example interface(s) 200receives unions and recorded union reaches. For example, the belowexample table (Table 1) includes input recorded audience ratings andreach data and population audience ratings data for an hour and a halfprogram broken up into six quarter hour marginals, where the totalrecorded audience reach across the six increments of time is 929,404persons, the universe estimate (E.g., total population size) is1,000,000 persons, and there are five different unions.

TABLE 1 Example Data Recorded Population Marginals (where audienceaudience UE = 1,000,000) ratings ratings A  4,779  9,629 B  41,036 81,019 C 154,466 294,432 D 348,548 618,045 E 570,607 878,173 F 781,248983,802 Recorded Population Unions union reach union reach (A, B) 43,384 X_(AB) (C, D) 416,025 X_(CD) (E, F) 898,562 X_(EF) (A, B, C, D)425,246 X_(ABCD) (A, B, C, D, E, F) 929,404 X_(ABCDEF)

In the example of Table 1, UE is the universe estimate (e.g., totalpopulation), A is a marginal corresponding to the ratings for a firstquarter hour, B is a marginal corresponding to the ratings for a secondquarter hour, C is a marginal corresponding to the ratings for a thirdquarter house, D is a marginal corresponding to the ratings for a fourthquarter hour, E is a marginal corresponding to the ratings for a fifthquarter hour, F is a marginal corresponding to the ratings for a sixthquarter hour, (A,B) is a reach corresponding to the union of marginals Aand B, (C,D) is a reach corresponding to the union of marginals C and D,(E,F) is a reach corresponding to the union of marginals E and F,(A,B,C,D) is a reach corresponding to the union of marginals A, B, C,and D, (A,B,C,D,E,F) is a reach corresponding to the deduplicated totalrecorded audience reach across A, B, C, D, E, and F (e.g., the totalrecorded reach), and XAB-XABCDEF are the respective population reachesfor each of the unions. Alternatively, as explained above, A, B, C, D,E, and F may represent hours, days, stores, websites, etc.

At block 306, the example union analyzer 202 determines the parent andchildren of each received union. Using the example of Table 1, theexample union analyzer 202 determines that union (A,B,C,D,E,F) does nothave a parent (e.g., the parent corresponds to the universe estimate)and has children (A,B,C,D) and (E,F), union (A,B,C,D) has parent(A,B,C,D,E,F) and children (A,B) and (C,D), union (E,F) has parent(A,B,C,D,E,F) and children E and F, union (A,B) has parent (A,B,C,D) andchildren A and B, and union (C,D) has parent (A,B,C,D) and children Cand D.

At block 308, the example reach determiner 206 estimates populationaudience union reaches for the received recorded audience union reaches.Using the example of Table 1, the example reach determiner 206determines initial estimates the population union reaches X_(ABCDEF),X_(ABCD), X_(EF), X_(AB), X_(CD) corresponding respectively to the forunions (A,B,C,D,E,F), (A,B,C,D), (E,F), (A,B), and (C,D). In someexamples, the initial estimates of the population union reaches arebased on assumed values that assume independency between children of theunions.

At block 310, the example pseudo universe determiner 204 estimates apseudo universe for the recorded audience for each union. The examplepseudo universe determiner 204 estimates a pseudo universe for therecorded audience for each union by entering the recorded union reachestimates into Equation 1. Using the example data of Table 1, theexample pseudo universe determiner 204 applies the recorded union reachestimates to Equation 1 resulting in the below system of Equations 4-8.

$\begin{matrix}{{1 - \frac{A_{({AB})}}{Q_{({AB})}^{R}}} = {( {1 - \frac{A_{(A)}}{Q_{({AB})}^{R}}} )( {1 - \frac{A_{(B)}}{Q_{({AB})}^{R}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 4} ) \\{{1 - \frac{A_{({CD})}}{Q_{({CD})}^{R}}} = {( {1 - \frac{A_{(C)}}{Q_{({CD})}^{R}}} )( {1 - \frac{A_{(D)}}{Q_{({CD})}^{R}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 5} ) \\{{1 - \frac{A_{({EF})}}{Q_{({EF})}^{R}}} = {( {1 - \frac{A_{(E)}}{Q_{({EF})}^{R}}} )( {1 - \frac{A_{(F)}}{Q_{({EF})}^{R}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 6} ) \\{{1 - \frac{A_{({ABCD})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{R}}} = {( {1 - \frac{A_{({AB})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{R}}} )( {1 - \frac{A_{({CD})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{R}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 7} ) \\{{1 - \frac{A_{({ABCDEF})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{R}}} = {( {1 - \frac{A_{({ABCD})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{R}}} )( {1 - \frac{A_{({EF})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{R}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 8} )\end{matrix}$

The example pseudo universe determiner 204 may use each of the Equations4-8 to determine the respective pseudo universe estimates for therecorded audience for the respective union (e.g., Q^(R) _(AB), Q^(R)_(CD), Q^(R) _(EF,) Q^(R) _(ABCD), Q^(R) _(ABCDEF)).

At block 312, the example union population reach determiner 130 checksthe consistency of the population union reach estimates for each union.As described above in conjunction with FIG. 2, the example consistencychecker 208 checks the consistency of the population union reaches foreach union based on the population reach estimates of the children ofthe union, the population reach estimates of the parents of the union,and/or the universe estimate. Additionally, the example reach determiner206 adjusts the population reach estimates based on the consistencycheck.

The checking of the consistency of the population union reach estimatesfor each union is further described in conjunction with FIGS. 4 and 5.

At block 314, the example pseudo universe determiner 204 iterativelyupdates the estimated pseudo universe for the population audience foreach union. The example pseudo universe determiner 204 updates theestimate pseudo universe for the population audience of each union usinga system of equations corresponding to Equation 2. Using the exampledata of Table 1, the example pseudo universe determiner 204 applies thepseudo universe for the recorded audience reach for each union, and therecorded ratings, and the population union reach estimates of each unionto Equation 2 resulting in the below system of Equations 9-13.

$\begin{matrix}{\frac{Q_{({AB})}^{R} - A_{({AB})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{P} - A_{({AB})}} = \frac{Q_{({AB})}^{P} - X_{({AB})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{P} - X_{({AB})}}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 9} ) \\{\frac{Q_{({CD})}^{R} - A_{({CD})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{P} - A_{({CD})}} = \frac{Q_{({CD})}^{P} - X_{({CD})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{P} - X_{({CD})}}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 10} ) \\{\frac{Q_{({EF})}^{R} - A_{({EF})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P} - A_{({EF})}} = \frac{Q_{({EF})}^{P} - X_{({EF})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P} - X_{({EF})}}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 11} ) \\{\frac{Q_{({ABCD})}^{R} - A_{({ABCD})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P} - A_{({ABCD})}} = \frac{Q_{({ABCD})}^{P} - X_{({ABCD})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P} - X_{({ABCD})}}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 12} ) \\{\frac{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{R} - A_{({ABCDEF})}}{{UE} - A_{({ABCDEF})}} = \frac{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P} - X_{({ABCDEF})}}{{UE} - X_{({ABCDEF})}}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 13} )\end{matrix}$

The example pseudo universe determiner 204 may use each of the Equations9-13 to determine the respective pseudo universe estimates for thepopulation audience for the respective unions (e.g., Q^(P) _(AB), Q^(P)_(CD), Q^(P) _(EF), Q^(P) _(ABCD), Q^(P) _(ABCDEF)).

At block 316, the example pseudo universe determiner 204 determineserror(s) of the population union reach estimates based on the definitionof the pseudo universe of the population (e.g., Equation 3). Using theexample data of Table 1, the example pseudo universe determiner 204applies the pseudo universe for the recorded audience for each union,and the recorded audience ratings/reach, the population union reachestimates of each union to the system of equations corresponding toEquation 3 resulting in the below system of Equations 14-18.

$\begin{matrix}{{1 - \frac{X_{({AB})}}{Q_{({AB})}^{P}}} = {( {1 - \frac{X_{(A)}}{Q_{({AB})}^{P}}} )( {1 - \frac{X_{(B)}}{Q_{({AB})}^{P}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 14} ) \\{{1 - \frac{X_{({CD})}}{Q_{({CD})}^{P}}} = {( {1 - \frac{X_{(C)}}{Q_{({CD})}^{P}}} )( {1 - \frac{X_{(D)}}{Q_{({CD})}^{P}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 15} ) \\{{1 - \frac{X_{({EF})}}{Q_{({EF})}^{P}}} = {( {1 - \frac{X_{(E)}}{Q_{({EF})}^{P}}} )( {1 - \frac{X_{(F)}}{Q_{({EF})}^{P}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 16} ) \\{{1 - \frac{X_{({ABCD})}}{Q_{({ABCD})}^{P}}} = {( {1 - \frac{X_{({AB})}}{Q_{({A{BCD}})}^{P}}} )( {1 - \frac{X_{({CD})}}{Q_{({A{BCD}})}^{P}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 17} ) \\{{1 - \frac{X_{({ABCDEF})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P}}} = {( {1 - \frac{X_{({A{BCD}})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P}}} )( {1 - \frac{X_{({EF})}}{Q_{({ABCDEF})}^{P}}} )}} & ( {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 18} )\end{matrix}$

The example pseudo universe determiner 204 determines the error(s)corresponding to the population union reach estimates based a differencebetween the right hand sides of Equations 14-17 to the left hand sidesof Equations 14-17. For example, if the right hand side of Equation 14is the same as the left hand side of Equation 17, the example pseudouniverse determiner 204 determines that the error of the populationunion reach corresponding with the (A,B) union is zero (e.g., no error).

At block 318, the example pseudo universe determiner 204 determines ifthe error(s) satisfy an error threshold. In some examples, the errorthreshold corresponds to an amount of acceptable error defined by a userand/or manufacturer. The error threshold may be set and/or adjusted toany value. In some examples, the example pseudo universe determiner 204determines that the error satisfies the error threshold when the errorof each of the population union reach estimates is at or below the errorthreshold. If the example pseudo universe determiner 204 determines thatthe error(s) do not satisfy the error threshold (block 318: NO), theexample reach determiner 206 adjusts the population union reachestimates based on the error(s) (e.g., to lower the error(s)) (block320). After the example reach determiner 206 adjusts the populationunion reach estimates, the process returns to block 312 to continueuntil the error is sufficiently reduced to satisfy the error threshold.

If the example pseudo universe determiner 204 determines that theerror(s) satisfy the error threshold (block 318: YES), the example reachdeterminer 206 determines the population reach of the unions based onthe population reach union estimates (block 322).

FIG. 4 is an example flowchart 312 representative of example machinereadable instructions that may be executed to implement the exampleunion population reach determiner 130 of FIGS. 1 and 2 to checkconsistency population union reach estimates, as described above inconjunction with block 312 of FIG. 3. Although the instructions of FIG.4 are described in conjunction with the example union population reachdeterminer 130 of FIGS. 1 and 2, the example instructions may beutilized by any type of population reach determiner.

At block 400, the example consistency checker 208 selects a union of thereceived unions. At block 402, the example consistency checker 208determines the maximum population reach of the children of the selectedunion. For example, using Table 1, if the selected union is (A,B,C,D),the example consistency checker 208 determines the maximum populationreach of the children of (A,B,C,D) to be 416,025 (e.g., the max[(A,B),(C,D)] =max[43,384, 416,025]=416,025).

At block 404, the example consistency checker 208 determines thepopulation reach sum of the children of the selected union. For example,using the selected union (A,B,C,D) of Table 1, the example consistencychecker 208 determines the population reach sum to be 459,409 (e.g.,(A,B)+(C,D)=43,384+416,025=459,409). At block 406, the exampleconsistency checker 208 determines the lower bound of the reach of theselected union based on the maximum population reach of the childrencorresponding to the selected union. For example, using the selectedunion (A,B,C,D) of Table 1, the example consistency checker 208determines the lower bound to be 416,025 (e.g., max[(A,B),(C,D)]=max(43,384, 416,025)=416,025). At block 408, the exampleconsistency checker 208 determines the upper bound of the selected unionbased on the universe estimate and the population reach sum. In someexamples, the consistency checker 208 determines the upper bound to bethe minimum of the universe estimate and the population reach sum. Forexample, using the selected union (A,B,C,D) of Table 1, the exampleconsistency checker 208 determines the upper bound to be 459,409 (e.g.,the min(UE, reach sum)=min(1,000,000, 459,409)=459,409).

At block 410, the example consistency checker 209 determines if thepopulation union reach estimate for the selected union is within thelower and upper bounds. For example, using the selected union (A,B,C,D)of Table 1, the example consistency checker 208 determines that apopulation union reach estimate for (A,B,C,D) of 500,000 is not withinthe lower and upper bounds, but a population union reach estimate of450,000 is within the lower and upper bounds. If the example consistencychecker 209 determines that the selected population union reach estimateis not within the lower and upper bounds (block 410: NO), the exampleconsistency checker 208 flags the population reach estimate for theselected union (block 412). If the example consistency checker 209determines that the selected union reach estimate is within the lowerand upper bounds (block 410: YES), the example consistency checker 208does not flag the population reach estimate for the selected union.

At block 414, the example consistency checker 208 determines if thereare additional unions to be processed. If the example consistencychecker 208 determines that there are additional unions to be processed(block 414: YES), the process returns to block 400 to check theconsistency of the additional unions. If the example consistency checker208 determines that there are no additional unions to be processed(block 414: NO), the example union population reach determiner 130applies corrections to the population reach estimates corresponding tothe flagged estimates (block 416), as further described below inconjunction with FIG. 5.

FIG. 5 is an example flowchart 416 representative of example machinereadable instructions that may be executed to implement the exampleunion population reach determiner 130 of FIGS. 1 and 2 to applycorrection to population union reach estimates corresponding to flaggedunions, as described above in conjunction with block 416 of FIG. 4.Although the instructions of FIG. 5 are described in conjunction withthe example union population reach determiner 130 of FIGS. 1 and 2, theexample instructions may be utilized by any type of population reachdeterminer.

At block 500, the example reach determiner 206 determines corrections(e.g., adjustments) for the flagged population union reach estimates(e.g., flagged by the example consistency checker 208). The correctionscorrespond to how much each flagged population union reach estimateshould be increased or decreased to satisfy the lower and upper boundsof the union (e.g., as determined according to the example describedabove in connection with FIG. 4). The example reach determiner 206 maydetermine corrections to adjust the flagged population union reachestimates so that each flagged estimate equals the lower bound, theupper bound, or any value in between the lower and upper bounds (e.g.,half way between the lower and upper bounds).

At block 502, the example consistency checker 208, readjusts the upperand/or lower bounds based on the determined corrections. Thecorrections, when applied to the reach estimates affect the upper and/orlower bounds of parent and/or children unions corresponding to theflagged population union reach estimates. Accordingly, the exampleconsistency checker 208 readjusts (e.g., by re-executing the exampleFIG. 4 described above) the upper and/or lower bounds to verify that thecorrections do not make the population union reach estimatesinconsistent. At block 504, the example consistency checker 208determines if all of the unions are still consistent. For example, theconsistency checker 208 determines that the unions are or are notconsistent as shown in the example flowchart 312 of FIG. 3.

If the example consistency checker 208 determines that the unions arenot still consistent (block 504: NO), the example reach determiner 206adjusts the determined corrections again to attempt to ensure that theunions will be consistent after applying the determined corrections(block 506). For example, if the correction corresponds to increasing afirst population reach estimate of a first union by a value of 30 anddecreasing a second population reach estimate of a second union by avalue of 50, the example reach determiner 206 may adjust correlations toincrease the first estimate by a value of 15 and decrease the secondestimate by a value of 25. The example reach determiner 206 may adjustthe corrections by any value or any percentage (e.g., 50% reduction ofthe determined corrections). The example reach determiner 206 may adjustall corrections by the same value or percentage or may adjust eachcorrection by a distinct value of percentage. If the example consistencychecker 208 determines that all of the unions are still consistent(block 504: YES), the example reach determiner 206 adjusts the unionreach estimates based on the determined corrections (block 508).

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of an example processor platform 600 capableof executing the instructions of FIG. 3 to implement the example unionpopulation reach determiner 130 of FIG. 1. The processor platform 600can be, for example, a server, a personal computer, a mobile device(e.g., a cell phone, a smart phone, a tablet such as an iPad™), apersonal digital assistant (PDA), an Internet appliance, or any othertype of computing device.

The processor platform 600 of the illustrated example includes aprocessor 612. The processor 612 of the illustrated example is hardware.For example, the processor 612 can be implemented by integratedcircuits, logic circuits, microprocessors or controllers from anydesired family or manufacturer.

The processor 612 of the illustrated example includes a local memory 613(e.g., a cache). The example processor 612 of FIG. 6 executes theinstructions of FIG. 3 to the example interface 200, the example unionanalyzer 202, the example pseudo universe determiner 204, the examplereach determiner 206, and/or the example consistency checker 208 toimplement the example seed panel generator 62 of FIG. 2. The processor612 of the illustrated example is in communication with a main memoryincluding a volatile memory 614 and a non-volatile memory 616 via a bus618. The volatile memory 614 may be implemented by Synchronous DynamicRandom Access Memory (SDRAM), Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM),RAMBUS Dynamic Random Access Memory (RDRAM) and/or any other type ofrandom access memory device. The non-volatile memory 616 may beimplemented by flash memory and/or any other desired type of memorydevice. Access to the main memory 614, 616 is controlled by a memorycontroller.

The processor platform 600 of the illustrated example also includes aninterface circuit 620. The interface circuit 620 may be implemented byany type of interface standard, such as an Ethernet interface, auniversal serial bus (USB), and/or a PCI express interface.

In the illustrated example, one or more input devices 622 are connectedto the interface circuit 620. The input device(s) 622 permit(s) a userto enter data and commands into the processor 612. The input device(s)can be implemented by, for example, a sensor, a microphone, a camera(still or video), a keyboard, a button, a mouse, a touchscreen, atrack-pad, a trackball, isopoint and/or a voice recognition system.

One or more output devices 624 are also connected to the interfacecircuit 620 of the illustrated example. The output devices 624 can beimplemented, for example, by display devices (e.g., a light emittingdiode (LED), an organic light emitting diode (OLED), a liquid crystaldisplay, a cathode ray tube display (CRT), a touchscreen, a tactileoutput device, and/or speakers). The interface circuit 620 of theillustrated example, thus, typically includes a graphics driver card, agraphics driver circuit or a graphics driver processor.

The interface circuit 620 of the illustrated example also includes acommunication device such as a transmitter, a receiver, a transceiver, amodem and/or network interface card to facilitate exchange of data withexternal machines (e.g., computing devices of any kind) via a network626 (e.g., an Ethernet connection, a digital subscriber line (DSL), atelephone line, coaxial cable, a cellular telephone system, etc.).

The processor platform 600 of the illustrated example also includes oneor more mass storage devices 628 for storing software and/or data.Examples of such mass storage devices 628 include floppy disk drives,hard drive disks, compact disk drives, Blu-ray disk drives, RAIDsystems, and digital versatile disk (DVD) drives.

The coded instructions 632 of FIGS. 3-5 may be stored in the massstorage device 628, in the volatile memory 614, in the non-volatilememory 616, and/or on a removable tangible computer readable storagemedium such as a CD or DVD.

From the foregoing, it should be appreciated that the above disclosedmethods, apparatus, and articles of manufacture estimate populationreach from marginal ratings. Example disclosed herein determine thereach analytically using the above Equations 1-3. Traditional techniquesfor determining reach across various unions include determining thereach numerically. However, such traditional techniques are unsolvablefor a large number of marginals dues to memory and/or processingconstraints. Examples disclosed herein alleviate the problems associatedwith such traditional techniques by demining the reach analytically(e.g., via solving the disclosed Equations 1-3 using a population reachunion estimates). Using examples disclosed herein reach can bedetermined from a nearly infinity number of instances and/or unions ofmedia exposure based on the marginal media exposure data.

Although certain example methods, apparatus and articles of manufacturehave been described herein, the scope of coverage of this patent is notlimited thereto. On the contrary, this patent covers all methods,apparatus and articles of manufacture fairly falling within the scope ofthe appended claims either literally or under the doctrine ofequivalents.

What is claimed is:
 1. An apparatus comprising: a reach determiner todetermine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals forwhich media ratings data is available, the population reach estimatebased on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audiencecorresponding to the union of the time intervals; a pseudo universedeterminer to: determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recordedaudience corresponding to the union of the time intervals; determine thepseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudouniverse estimate of the recorded audience; and iteratively update thepseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an errorof the population reach estimate; and a consistency checker to adjustthe population reach estimate when the population reach estimate isoutside a range defined by a lower bound and an upper bound, the reachdeterminer to output the population reach estimate of the union when theerror of the population reach estimate satisfies a threshold.
 2. Theapparatus of claim 1, wherein the lower bound is a second populationreach estimate corresponding to a subset of the union of the timeintervals.
 3. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the upper bound is atleast one of (A) a sum of reach estimates for a plurality of subsets ofthe union or (B) a universe estimate of users that potentially could beexposed to media corresponding to the media ratings data.
 4. Theapparatus of claim 1, wherein the consistency checker is to adjust thepopulation reach estimate of the union to fit within the range.
 5. Theapparatus of claim 4, wherein the union is a first union, the lowerbound is a first lower bound, the upper bound is a first upper bound,the range is a first range, the population reach estimate is a firstpopulation reach estimate, and when the consistency checker adjusts thepopulation reach estimate of the first union, at least one of a secondlower bound or a second upper bound of a second population reachestimate of a second union of the time intervals is adjusted, theconsistency checker to adjust the first population reach estimate of thefirst union to ensure that the second population reach estimate of thesecond union of the time intervals is within a second range defined bythe second lower bound and the second upper bound.
 6. The apparatus ofclaim 1, wherein the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audiencecorresponds to a recorded reach for subsets of the union of the timeintervals, and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audiencecorresponds to a population reach for the subsets of the union of thetime intervals.
 7. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein: the pseudouniverse estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a firstuniverse estimate that assures independency among recorded audience datafor the subsets of the union of the time intervals; and the pseudouniverse estimate of the population audience corresponds to a seconduniverse estimate that assures independency among population audiencedata for the subsets of the union of the time intervals.
 8. Theapparatus of claim 1, wherein the error corresponds to a differencebetween (A) a first relationship based on the population reach estimateof the union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate ofthe population audience of the union of the time intervals, and (B) asecond relationship based on population reach estimates for subsets ofthe union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of thepopulation audience of the union of the time intervals.
 9. Anon-transitory computer readable medium comprising instructions which,when executed cause one or more processors to at least: determine apopulation reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which mediaratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on apseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to theunion of the time intervals; determine a pseudo universe estimate of arecorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience basedon the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience; iterativelyadjust the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reducean error of the population reach estimate; adjust the population reachestimate when the population reach estimate is outside at least one of alower bound and an upper bound; and output the population reach estimateof the union when the error of the population reach estimate satisfies athreshold.
 10. The computer readable medium of claim 9, wherein thelower bound is a second population reach estimate corresponding to asubset of the union of the time intervals.
 11. The computer readablemedium of claim 9, wherein the upper bound is at least one of (A) a sumof reach estimates for a plurality of subsets of the union or (B) auniverse estimate of users that potentially could be exposed to mediacorresponding to the media ratings data.
 12. The computer readablemedium of claim 9, wherein the instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to adjust the population reach estimate of the union to bebetween the lower bound and the upper bound.
 13. The computer readablemedium of claim 12, wherein the union is a first union, the lower boundis a first lower bound, the upper bound is a first upper bound, thepopulation reach estimate is a first population reach estimate, and whenthe instructions cause the one or more processors to adjust thepopulation reach estimate of the first union, at least one of a secondlower bound or a second upper bound of a second population reachestimate of a second union of the time intervals is adjusted, theinstructions to cause the one or more processors to adjust the firstpopulation reach estimate of the first union to ensure that the secondpopulation reach estimate of the second union of the time intervals isbetween the second lower bound and the second upper bound.
 14. Thecomputer readable medium of claim 9, wherein the pseudo universeestimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a recorded reach forsubsets of the union of the time intervals, and the pseudo universeestimate of the population audience corresponds to a population reachfor the subsets of the union of the time intervals.
 15. The computerreadable medium of claim 14, wherein: the pseudo universe estimate ofthe recorded audience corresponds to a first universe estimate thatassures independency among recorded audience data for the subsets of theunion of the time intervals; and the pseudo universe estimate of thepopulation audience corresponds to a second universe estimate thatassures independency among population audience data for the subsets ofthe union of the time intervals.
 16. The computer readable medium ofclaim 9, wherein the error corresponds to a difference between (A) afirst relationship based on the population reach estimate of the unionof the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of the populationaudience of the union of the time intervals, and (B) a secondrelationship based on population reach estimates for subsets of theunion of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of thepopulation audience of the union of the time intervals.
 17. An apparatuscomprising: means for determining a population reach estimate of a unionof time intervals for which media ratings data is available, thepopulation reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of apopulation audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;means for determining the pseudo universe estimate of the populationaudience, the determining the pseudo universe estimate of the populationaudience to: determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audiencecorresponding to the union of the time intervals; determine the pseudouniverse estimate of the population audience based on the pseudouniverse estimate of the recorded audience; and iteratively update thepseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an errorof the population reach estimate; and means for adjusting the populationreach estimate when the population reach estimate is outside a rangedefined by a lower bound and an upper bound, the reach determiner tooutput the population reach estimate of the union when the error of thepopulation reach estimate satisfies a threshold.
 18. The apparatus ofclaim 17, wherein the lower bound is a second population reach estimatecorresponding to a subset of the union of the time intervals.
 19. Theapparatus of claim 17, wherein the upper bound is at least one of (A) asum of reach estimates for a plurality of subsets of the union or (B) auniverse estimate of users that potentially could be exposed to mediacorresponding to the media ratings data.
 20. The apparatus of claim 17,wherein the means for adjusting is to adjust the population reachestimate of the union to fit within the range.